Casey's Set to Release Q4 Earnings: Key Insights for Investors

Casey's General Stores, Inc. CASY is likely to register an increase in the top line when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings results on June 9, after the market closes. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3,969 million, indicating a 10.3% increase compared with the prior-year quarter.

Casey’s earnings per share are expected to have declined year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings has remained unchanged over the past 30 days. The consensus mark is pinned at $1.93 per share, implying a 17.5% decrease from the prior-year period.

This Ankeny, IA-based company delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 22.7%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company’s bottom line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a margin of 32.4%. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

Casey's General Stores, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Casey's General Stores, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Casey's General Stores, Inc. Quote

Things to Know Before CASY’s Q4 Earnings

Casey's resilient business operating model, bolstered by stellar omnichannel capabilities and expanded customer outreach, along with exclusive private-label offerings, forms a robust foundation in the market. Its strategic focus on technological advancements, diversified product lines and ongoing store expansion initiatives is likely to have supported significant top-line growth. The integration of the Fikes transaction has significantly expanded its store base and operational footprint.

The company continues to benefit from the strength of its in-store offerings, particularly in prepared food and dispensed beverages. Casey’s has shown an ability to innovate within this segment through the introduction of new menu items and promotional campaigns that resonate with consumers. Limited-time offerings and continued product quality improvements have helped the brand stand out in a competitive convenience store landscape. We expect revenues from the prepared food and dispensed beverage segment to increase 13.2%.

In addition to food innovation, Casey’s grocery and general merchandise categories have demonstrated steady performance, particularly in trending items like energy drinks and other non-alcoholic beverages. The company's focus on product mix optimization has positioned it to capture consumer demand shifts effectively. Our model indicates a 12.7% increase in sales for the grocery and general merchandise category.

As a result, we expect inside sales to increase 12.8%, with inside same-store sales growing 2.6%. This implies the impact of strong foodservice innovation, expanded private-label offerings and effective promotions. Consistent demand across key categories and growing digital engagement continue to drive both traffic and basket size, supporting in-store growth momentum.

Casey’s fourth-quarter earnings are expected to have declined primarily due to the dilutive impact of the Fikes acquisition, which brings higher interest expenses, increased depreciation and amortization and additional integration costs. These financial burdens, combined with the absence of the leap day benefit that positively impacted last year’s results and unfavorable weather conditions affecting February sales, are likely to have weighed on profitability. We expect operating expenses to increase 14.9% for the quarter under discussion.

Earnings Whispers for CASY

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Casey's this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

Casey's currently has a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season:

Dollar Tree DLTR currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.49% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The company is likely to register top and bottom-line declines when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The consensus mark for DLTR’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $4.5 billion, which indicates a plunge of 40.5% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Dollar Tree’s quarterly earnings per share is pegged at $1.19, indicating a 16.8% decline from the year-ago period. DLTR delivered a negative trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 8.4%, on average.

Dollar General Corporation DG currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.64% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is likely to register top-line growth when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $10.3 billion, which indicates an increase of 3.7% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Dollar General’s quarterly earnings per share is pegged at $1.47, indicating a 10.9% decline from the year-ago period. DG delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 1.2%, on average.

J.Jill, Inc. JILL currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.71% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register a decline in both top and bottom lines when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2025 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for J.Jill’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $156.7 million, which indicates a decrease of 3% from the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for J.Jill’s quarterly earnings per share is pegged at 88 cents, down 27.9% from the year-ago period. JILL delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 18.9%, on average.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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